The month of November will still be marked by irregular rainfall in part of the country, according to the most recent data released by the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet). Under the influence of El Niño, Inmet predicts the continuation of rain in the South of Brazil and drier weather in areas of the North and Northeast of the country.
According to the precipitation anomaly forecast map, the western region of Rio Grande do Sul may register up to 75mm above the expected average for the month. Significant rains are expected in the same areas of the northern region of Paraná. In other regions of southern Brazil, meteorologists predict rainfall with volumes between 10mm and 50mm above the average for the month.
The model also signals the return of more significant rains in Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo. In the first case, the forecast is for significant volumes for the center-east of the state. In the central zone of the state of São Paulo, the most significant rains are expected.
Forecast of irregular rains and their impact on the harvest in different regions of Brazil
Inmet predicts rain for Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo. In some areas with above-average volumes, but it also shows the condition for irregular distribution in the two states.
The irregularity of rainfall in Mato Grosso and Goiás draws attention, as well as the risk of below-average volumes in areas of the North and Northeast of the country.
In Mato Grosso, irregularities can have an impact on soybean development. In some areas of the state, volumes may be up to 50mm below expectations for the month. The eastern band may have accumulated above expectations. In Goiás, in general, rainfall can be between 10mm and 50mm above what is predicted for the month.
“In much of Central Brazil, the gradual return of rain will be important for the recovery of water storage in the soil, especially in areas north of Mato Grosso and Goiás, as well as for the start of the grain harvest. In areas of Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo and southern Minas Gerais and Goiás, soil moisture will be sufficient to meet the initial phases of the 2023/24 harvest”, states the forecast.
Matopiba anticipates challenges with below-average forecast and impacts on the initial harvest
For Matopiba, however, the trend is for volumes just below average in all states. The low volumes of rain forecast will continue to keep water levels in the ground low. However, in areas of southern Tocantins and the extreme west of Bahia, there will be a slight recovery of soil moisture. This condition could impact the evolution of planting and the initial development of first-crop crops that are already underway”, he states.
Inmet published information about average temperatures in Brazil. Forecasts indicate that in many regions, including Mato Grosso, Pará, Tocantins, Maranhão, Piauí and western Bahia, average temperatures could exceed 28ºC. These projections therefore point to above-average temperatures in the country. It is worth noting that the occurrence of consecutive days with rain in the South and Southeast regions, however, can reduce temperatures, reaching values below 24°C.
Source: Virgínia Alves | Notícias Agrícolas
