The Brazilian market for corn should start the week with closed business. Producers evaluate export parity and exchange rate variation, considering supply fixation. Consumers, in turn, continue trying to access lower prices, signaling a comfortable position in supply. On the international scene, the Chicago Commodity Exchange is operating slightly lower, while the dollar retreats against the real.
The Brazilian corn market was blocked this Friday, with consumers and producers holding back in negotiations. Producers reduced their supply fixation on the day, assessing that indications at ports are strong, even with the fall of the Chicago Stock Exchange (CBOT) and the dollar close to stability.
At the Port of Santos, the price was between R$ 63.50/66.00 per bag (CIF). At the Port of Paranaguá, prices range from R$ 59.00/63.00 per bag.
In Paraná, the price was R$ 49.00/52.00 per bag in Cascavel. In São Paulo, price of R$ 50.00/53.00 at Mogiana. In Campinas CIF, price of R$ 55.00/58.00 per bag.
In Rio Grande do Sul, the price was R$ 60.00/62.00 per bag in Erechim. In Minas Gerais, price at R$ 52.00/55.00 per bag of corn in Uberlândia. In Goiás, the price was R$ 44.00/R$ 47.00 per bag in Rio Verde – CIF. In Mato Grosso, the price was R$ 42.00/45.00 per bag in Rondonópolis.
Chicago – Challenges for the corn market in 2023
- Contracts expiring in December 2023 operate at US$ 4.76 per bushel, down 0.25 cents per bushel or 0.05% compared to the previous closing.
- The market is trading close to the lowest levels since December 2020. With significant corn shipments from Brazil reducing international demand for the US cereal, analysts predict that the country's stocks next year could reach the highest levels in the last decade years. The poor performance of European stock exchanges completes the bearish picture for prices.
- Furthermore, according to Reteurs, summer rains have brought significant benefits to corn plantations across much of the European Union. European consultancy Strategie Grains increased its forecast for the EU corn harvest in 2023 by almost 1 million tonnes, totaling 59.6 million tonnes.
- On Friday (15), corn contracts for delivery in December closed at US$ 4.76 1/4 per bushel, a decrease of 4.25 cents, or 0.88%, in relation to the previous closing. The March 2024 position closed the session at US$ 4.90 1/2 per bushel, down 4.00 cents, or 0.8%.
Exchange
- The commercial dollar is down 0.09% at R$ 4.8665. The Dollar Index registered a devaluation of 0.04% to 105.28 points.
Financial indicators
- The main stock exchanges in Asia closed mixed. Furthermore, Shanghai recorded an increase of 0.26%, while in Japan, on the other hand, there was a holiday.
- Meanwhile, the main exchanges in Europe operate with weak indices. Paris, however, shows a significant drop of 1.20%, followed by Frankfurt, which records a reduction of 0.84%. London is also in the red, with a drop of 0.46%.
- In the commodities market, oil is rising. The WTI October contract in New York is trading at US$ 91.26 a barrel, representing an increase of 0.53%. Therefore, oil prices are on the rise, driven by several factors.
- These variations in financial markets reflect, above all, the complex global dynamics and the different elements that influence investors' decisions.
Schedule
- US Weekly Export Inspections – USDA, 12pm.
- Furthermore, the Report on the evolution and conditions of crops in the United States – USDA, 5pm, will be crucial for analyzing the agricultural situation in the country.
- The Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Tourism, in turn, releases, at 3 pm, the preliminary partial balance for September.
- Therefore, this information is fundamental to understanding the current economic and agricultural scenario in the United States and its global implications.
Tuesday (19/09)
- The Economic Research Institute Foundation (Fipe) also releases, at 7am, the IPC-S for the city of São Paulo for the 2nd four-week period of September. Previously, the data was released at a different time, but there was this change.
- Therefore, in the Eurozone, the revised reading of the consumer price index for August will be published at 6am by Eurostat. Similarly, other European regions also update their indicators at the same time.
- The sixth edition of SAFRAS Agri Week starts at 9am. Later, there will be a series of lectures and events related to agribusiness.
- Furthermore, data on crops in Paraná – Deral will be released in the morning, providing important information for the sector.
- The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) publishes the 2023 economic outlook. In principle, this will provide a clearer picture of global economic expectations for the coming year. However, it is necessary to analyze the specific regional implications.
Wednesday (20/09)
- Certainly, there are a number of important economic events scheduled for release in different countries in the coming days. Furthermore, it is essential to be aware of this information to understand the global panorama.
- Previously, we mentioned Japan's trade balance, which will be published by the Ministry of Finance. In fact, China will also have a relevant announcement with the monetary policy decision by the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the country's central bank.
- Similarly, in Germany, we will have the publication of the August producer price index by Destatis at 3am. This is important data for evaluating the German economy. However, in Brazil, Conab will release the results of the third 2023 Coffee Harvest Survey at 9am, which is vital for the agricultural sector.
- However, it is crucial to mention that the second day of the sixth edition of SAFRAS Agri Week will also take place from 9 am, bringing more insights into the agricultural market. Likewise, in the UK, we will have significant releases, such as the August consumer and producer price index, published by the statistics department.
- On the other hand, in the USA, the position of oil stocks will be published by Friday of last week at 11:30 am by the Department of Energy (DoE). Subsequently, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its monetary policy decision and economic projections after meeting at 3 pm.
- However, in Brazil, the second day of the Copom meeting and the announcement of the new Selic value (basic interest rate) still stand out. This event is of great importance for financial markets. In short, it is essential to closely monitor these releases as they provide valuable insights into global economies.
Thursday (21/09)
- The third and final day of the sixth edition of SAFRAS Agri Week starts at 9am.
- The Bank of England will publish its monetary policy decision at 8am in the UK.
- The European Commission will publish the preliminary reading of consumer confidence for September at 11am in the Eurozone.
- US weekly grain exports – USDA, 9:30 am.
- Data on crop development in RS – Emater, in the afternoon.
- Data on the development of Argentine crops – Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange, 3pm.
- Report on crop conditions in Argentina – Ministry of Agriculture, in the afternoon.
Friday (22/09)
- The statistics department will publish August UK retail sales at 3am.
- The statistics bureau will publish Japan's August consumer price index reading.
- The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will publish the monetary policy decision at 11pm.
- Imea releases a report on the evolution of crops in Mato Grosso.
Source: Pedro Carneiro | Crops &
