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The Ibovespa showed a timid variation this Thursday, losing steam from the first deals, when it rose almost 1.5% reacting to the Central Bank's decision to cut the Selic rate by 0.50 percentage points, to 13.25% per year, in a stronger movement than expected by most in the Brazilian market.
In the statement that accompanied the announcement of the first cut in the basic interest rate in three years the day before, in a divided vote, the BC also signaled new equivalent cuts in the next meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom).
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At 11:12, the Ibovespa rose 0.13%, to 121,013.41 points, having reached 122,619.14 at its highest so far, with a battery of corporate results also under analysis, including the numbers from Prio, Ambev, CSN and Suzano .
The financial volume in the trading session totaled 6.8 billion reais.
The Brazilian stock exchange had already been pricing in the prospect of a Selic cut in the second half of the year for months, supported, among other factors, by a relevant improvement in current inflation data and projections, as well as advances in agendas in Congress, including the new fiscal rule and tax reform.
Until Wednesday, however, there was no consensus on the magnitude of the cut. A Reuters poll of 46 economists published last week showed that 36 expected a 0.25-point reduction, while ten expected a 0.50-point drop. In the DI curve, there were also divergences.
For economists at UBS BB, the most important aspect of the Copom statement that accompanied the decision was the signaling of several meetings towards a pace of 0.50 points.
“This choice was likely made to avoid a wide range of expectations about the pace of rates for upcoming meetings. Most likely, 0.50 points will be the norm by the end of the year”, stated Alexandre de Azara and his team in a report sent to clients.
The Copom decision mainly boosted shares of companies more exposed to the local market, more sensitive to interest rates, such as construction companies, as well as consumer securities. But the relatively unfavorable risk environment abroad ended up undermining a more positive reaction from Ibovespa.
According to the variable income manager at Fator Administração de Recursos Isabel Lemos, a significant portion of the Ibovespa is made up of securities exposed to the foreign market, which ends up weighing down. But she highlighted that the important thing is that the Selic falling cycle has begun.
“Over time, seeing interest rate reductions — which are a response to the consolidation of lower inflation and a better fiscal outlook — we believe in an improvement in risk aversion, continuing the improvement in the variable income market, especially in some sectors via selected companies.”
Overseas, oil prices advanced, but iron ore futures fell in Asia on concerns about restrictions on Chinese steel production and prospects for a recovery in the struggling local real estate sector. In New York, the S&P 500 fell 0.33%.
HIGHLIGHTS
– EZTEC ON gained 4.71%, at 23.36 reais, and CYRELA ON gained 3.78%, at 25.01 reais, with shares of construction companies supported by prospects of continued fall in interest rates. The real estate sector index on B3 rose 2.2%. Outside the Ibovespa, TENDA ON jumped 10.41% with the quarter's results also on the radar.
– PRIO ON was valued at 3.56%, at 46.86 reais, after the second quarter balance showing net profit of 184.6 million dollars, an increase of 32% compared to the same period in 2022. The shares also had the rise as a backdrop of oil prices abroad. In the sector, PETROBRAS PN, which releases its numbers after closing this Thursday, rose 0.92%.
– SUZANO ON advanced 1.8%, at 48.75 reais, as the company recorded a net profit of 5.08 billion reais in the second quarter, a much better performance compared to the profit of 182 million reais in the same period of last year. Adjusted Ebitda, however, fell by 38%. Suzano executives stated that they see costs on a downward trend in the second half of the year.
– AMBEV ON fell 0.47%, to 14.98 reais, distancing itself from the day's high of 15.45 reais seen earlier, as investors analyze the 15% drop in net profit for the second quarter compared to the same period of the previous year, to 2.6 billion reais. The company, however, cut its outlook for the cost of goods sold (COGS) per hectoliter for the year.
– ALPARGATAS PN lost 4.1%, at 9.12 reais, with a report from JPMorgan analysts on the radar cutting the recommendation for the shares to “neutral” and reducing the target price from 9.50 to 9 reais. For Joseph Giordano and his team, poor short-term results and turnaround initiatives limit visibility into the long-term plans of the owner of Havainas.
– ELETROBRAS ON fell 3.33%, to 37.14 reais. ELETROBRAS PNB lost 2,85%.
– CSN ON showed a decrease of 2.78%, to 12.93 reais, with financial agents also analyzing the results of the second quarter, which showed a net profit of 283 million reais, a decrease of 23% compared to the same stage of the previous year, pressured by the fall in iron ore prices and increased costs in the steel business. VALE ON yielded 0.3%.
– BRADESCO PN fell 0.24%, to 16.63 reais, before the release of the balance sheet for the period from April to June, after the market closed. In the sector, ITAÚ UNIBANCO PN had a drop of 0.45%, to 28.49 reais.
Source: Paula Arend Laier | Notícias Agrícolas
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