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Corn prices in Chicago did not follow soybeans and registered a drop this week, compared to the previous week. A bushel of cereal closed Thursday (06) at US$ 5.66, against US$ 5.81 a week earlier. The US planting report showed a larger corn area at 6% compared to the previous year. The same would be 38.08 million hectares. At the same time, the quarterly stock report indicated a reduction of 6% over the same period last year, with stocks remaining, as of June 1, at 102.9 million tons.
Added to this is the recovery in the quality of American crops, which reached, on 07/02, 51% between good and excellent, gaining one percentage point over the previous week. Even so, last year, at this time, 64% of them were in this situation. Another 34% are currently in good condition and 15% are in bad to very bad condition. On this day, 02/07, around 8% of crops were in the donning phase, compared to 9% in the historical average for the period.
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And in Brazil, prices remain weak, without major changes. The Gaucho average, at the counter, closed the week at R$ 53.32/bag, with the main markets in the State trading the product at R$ 52.00/bag. In other national markets, the product fluctuated between R$ 35.00 and R$ 52.00/bag.
At B3, Wednesday (05) closed with lower prices, losing 1.8% in the weekly average, with values ranging between R$ 53.28 and R$ 63.15/bag.
In this sense, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa indicator (Campinas – SP) presented the lowest monthly average since May 2019, in real values (deflated by the IGP-DI of May/23). This decline would be a reflection of the progress of the second harvest harvest, which, despite being delayed compared to the previous year, has been gaining pace and should be intensified in the second half of July. As a result, demand for cereal weakened again, with buyers negotiating on an occasional basis, only when necessary. (cf. Cepea)
In fact, the 2023 off-season harvest, on 06/29, reached 17% of the expected area in the Brazilian Center-South, compared to 31% in the same period last year. In this context, a larger harvest is expected, reaching 102.9 million tons, with total Brazilian corn production reaching 132.3 million tons. (cf. AgRural)
Given this, national corn exports this year could even reach 50 million tons, depending on the foreign market. Domestic consumption would be 81 million tons, while ending stocks would be 16.3 million tons. (cf. StoneX) In other words, without offering conditions for cereal prices to rise in the country.
According to the StoneX consultancy, the corn harvest could reach just over 105 million tons, while the summer harvest would have reached 28.6 million.
On the other hand, in June Brazil shipped 1.03 million tons of corn, that is, 4.5% above that shipped in June 2022. (cf. Secex) Even so, the pace is still low to reach 50 million tons throughout the current calendar year. But the largest export volume, historically, occurs in the second half of the year. In this sense, Anec projects a volume of 6.3 million tons to be exported by Brazil in July.
Meanwhile, Conab reported that the summer crop is harvested from 94.8% of the country's sown area. The second crop would be harvested in 20% of the total area. The most advanced states are Mato Grosso (35.9%), Tocantins (30%), Maranhão (22%), Minas Gerais (9%), Goiás and Piauí (7%), Paraná (3%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (2%).
Specifically in Mato Grosso, Imea indicates that the final production of the local off-season could reach 50.2 million tons, 14.4% above that recorded in the previous year. Average productivity should be 112.7 bags/hectare. The Mato Grosso off-season harvest reached 33.1% of the area at the beginning of this week, against 44.1% in the historical average for this season.
In turn, Deral reports that the corn harvest in Paraná reached just 3% of the area at the beginning of this week, with 82% of the crops being in good condition, 15% regular and 3% poor.
Finally, in Mato Grosso do Sul the off-season harvest reached 2.2% of the area on 06/30, against 5.8% in the historical average. The Mato Grosso do Sul State continues to estimate a final harvest of the second season at 11.2 million tons, a volume that represents a decrease of 12.3% over the previous year's harvest. On the side of local prices, between 26/06 and 03/07 the bag of corn was R$ 40.50 on average, with 30.1% of the estimated harvest being sold at the beginning of this month of July.
Source: Aline Merladete | agrolink
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