Image: Pixabay
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced last Tuesday (4) that it officially declared the beginning of El Niño. According to the publication, this is the first time that the phenomenon has developed in the last seven years and is predicted to be 90% likely to continue throughout the second half of 2023.
“The onset of El Niño will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and causing more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas, in the official publication.
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The professor also highlighted that the WMO declaration, at this time, is a warning for governments to mobilize with strategies to minimize impacts on ecosystems, economies and population health.
As the WMO explains, El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes generally last nine to 12 months. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
In anticipation of the El Niño event, a WMO report released in May predicted that there is a 98% probability that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the hottest on record, beating the record set in 2016, when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño.
The WMO report in May, led by the UK Met Office with partners around the world, also said there is a 66% probability that the global average annual near-surface temperature between 2023 and 2027 will temporarily be more than 1.5° C above industrial levels for at least one year.
According to the WMO's State of the Global Climate reports, 2016 is the hottest year on record because of the “double whammy” of a very powerful El Niño event and human-induced warming due to greenhouse gases. The effect on global temperatures usually occurs in the year following its development and is therefore likely to be most apparent in 2024.
Historic
The WMO highlighted that since February 2023, anomalies began to be observed by meteorologists, indicating the possibility of an El Niño later this year. “In the week centered on June 14, 2023, warm sea surface temperature anomalies continued to increase, reaching a value of +0.9ºC”, it states.
“However, some uncertainty remains due only to weak ocean-atmosphere coupling, which is crucial for the amplification and maintenance of El Niño. It is anticipated that it will take approximately another month to witness fully established coupling in the tropical Pacific.”
Source: Virgínia Alves | Notícias Agrícolas
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